Chamber Comments on GDP Estimate
Commenting on the publication today of the Office for National Statistics’ First Estimate of GDP for Q2 2017, Christian Spence, Head of Research & Policy at Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, said:
“This first estimate of economic activity for Q2 2017 of 0.3% on the previous quarter is broadly in line with our expectations, though slightly lower than our current forecasts. The detail shows that growth is still being driven by the consumer side of the services sector with distribution, hotels and restaurants providing the impetus in the economy now, as in the previous few years. Retail trade remains strong, though the growing evidence that household incomes are being eroded by higher inflation increases the downside risks for the coming quarters. Weakness in travel agency activities is likely to be related to the weakness of Sterling causing people to reconsider holidays abroad though this may further support consumer spending in the UK in the short term.
“Both manufacturing (-0.5%) and construction (-0.9%) output look weak and contradict our most recent Quarterly Economic Survey data which indicates moderate growth in these sectors over the second quarter, and we expect that these estimates, particularly for construction, will be revised up over the coming months.
“Our view for the future growth of the UK economy remains slightly muted by historic comparison, with a combination of the uncertainty over Brexit negotiations, increased inflation caused by the depreciation of Sterling and an expected softening of both consumer spending and business investment over the coming year. Government can support confidence in the near term by being clearer over its desired outcome of the Brexit negotiations (and we applaud the softening of its stance over the past week) and by greater commitments to investment, particularly in infrastructure, as well as accelerating its plans for its new industrial strategy.”