Chamber Comments on Latest ONS Figures

Commenting on the latest ONS figures released today showing the UK economy grew by over a meagre 0.4% in the month of October, Subrahmaniam Krishnan-Harihara, Head of Research at Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, said: "The UK's economic growth has stalled after record growth in Q3. The re-imposition of restrictions early in autumn has dampened economic activity. Greater Manchester Chamber's Recovery Tracker surveys conducted in October showed that customer demand had decreased from September's levels with an associated worsening in cash positions for many businesses. 

"Although this is the sixth straight month of growth, GDP is still 8% lower than pre-pandemic levels. All three main sector groups, manufacturing, construction and services grew: respectively by 1.3%, 1% and 0.2% in October. Since services accounts for four-fifths of the UK economy, poor growth in the services sector would constrain overall expansion of the economy. In July and August, consumer-facing services recovered more than the service sector average but as restrictions were reintroduced in different parts of the country, consumer-facing services fell back. For example, firms in hospitality, who are most acutely exposed to the renewed restrictions, suffered particularly badly in the month.  

“It is important to note that this flatlining of growth was prior to the imposition of the second national lockdown in November. It is, therefore, likely that the gains of the summer will be reversed.  

“The Chamber's latest research shows that with continued Tier 3 restrictions in Greater Manchester, business activity levels may continue to decline into the festive season. Whilst that decline would likely not be as drastic as experienced in April, business confidence is low and will act as a brake on growth and investment. While a vaccine offers real hope on the public health front, there is the prospect of another economic shock - if the UK fails to secure a deal with the EU, the possibility of a disorderly end to the transition period will disrupt supply chain and erode confidence and force a severe drag on any economic recovery." 


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About Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce

Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce is the largest Chamber of Commerce in the UK, providing business support to approximately 4,500 members who collectively employ 446,000 people, around one-third of Greater Manchester’s workforce. Recognised as a leader in its field, Greater Manchester Chamber’s reputation in government circles has grown locally and nationally. At the heart of the area of greatest economic intensity outside London and the South East, the Chamber is the primary body for business support, policy, representation and networking. The Chamber is an independent, not-for-profit private company and its aim is to support businesses and help create the best climate for the region to prosper. This is achieved by ensuring that those taking decisions on key issues such as transport, taxation and business regulation hear the voice of our members. The representation of our members’ views is central to the work of the policy team at the Chamber; these views are gathered in a range of ways including our local councils, policy committees, sector councils, the main Chamber council, focus groups, meetings with politicians and consultations. The Chamber also offers a range of networking forums across Greater Manchester, free as part of membership, plus a variety of other events and services designed to benefit specific sectors or individuals and help businesses to grow.


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