Which beauty products will win this Black Friday? The Perfume Shop, Paula’s Choice and eyelash extensions
The Perfume Shop (predicted up by 32%) and Paula’s Choice (up by 27%) are the beauty brands predicted to see the biggest increases in UK search volumes for Black Friday 2021, according to data released today.
In addition, ‘eyelash extensions’ is going to be the fashion search term of the moment as people plan to go out on the town in the run-up to Christmas - or want to look good on their video calls. It is predicted that searches will jump by 73%, with ‘eyebrow lamination’ in second place with a predicted rise of 50%.
The analysis was carried out by search expert MediaVision, using the proprietary Digital Demand Tracker tool that analyses search data from AdWords and Google Trends.
It used a combination of machine learning and data science to extrapolate likely search terms, volumes and trends for the period 1 Nov-5 Dec 2021, based on the past four months of online searches as well as Black Friday search patterns over the past three years. It found that searches for the term ‘Black Friday’ are already up by 11% compared to 2020.
However, most UK beauty brands are predicted to see their search volumes fall this Black Friday. Among brands with less than 50,000 monthly searches on average, only Paula’s Choice, Diptyque (up 12%) and Avon (up 2%) are predicted to see a rise in traffic. All the others, including Lancome (down 0.4%), Clinique (down 18%) and Lush (down 49%) are forecast to see online interest plummet.
While among the market leader brands with an average monthly search volume of 50,000+, only The Perfume Shop and Lookfantastic (up 0.5%) are set to see their search volumes increase this year. Brands such as Molton Brown (down 11%), Bodyshop (down 41%) and Superdrug (down 27%) are all predicted to have their online activity decline.
This suggests that perfume and fragrances are likely to be more successful this Black Friday and that the beauty sector is still only slowly bouncing back from the challenges of the pandemic.
However, the analysis also predicted the generic beauty and skincare search terms likely to see the biggest surges in volumes for Black Friday 2021:
PREDICTED SEARCH INCREASE
1. Eyelash Extensions 72.5%
2. Eyebrow Lamination 50.4%
3. Gel Nails 35.9%
4. Vitamin B12 23.5%
5. Bikini Wax 16.4%
6. Men’s Aftershave 13.8%
7. Makeup Gift Sets 12.4%
8. Perfumes 8.9%
9. Aftershave 8.8%
10. Teeth Whitening 3.8%
These predictions should be seen in the context of the explosion in online activity during the pandemic. In the UK alone, 51,379 new e-commerce businesses launched between 1 April 2020 and 31st July 2021.
However, growth cannot be counted on across all parts of retail, and some of the most prominent players in online retail are predicted to see a decline in Black Friday demand this year: Amazon is predicted to see search volumes fall by 19% and Argos by 23.4%. Potential reasons include a more competitive and saturated market, shopper hesitancy, complexities around product availability, the delivery driver drought and logistical issues.
There is also growing sentiment among shoppers to support local and smaller online retailers
post-pandemic, with a big focus on sustainability, reduced packaging and buying from independents.
Louis Venter, CEO at MediaVision, comments: “Paula’s Choice is a brand that was so popular during lockdown that it’s just been acquired by Unilever. It’s already showing the continuing strength of its e-commerce strategy and is set to have a strong Black Friday.
“Overall, it seems fragrances are hot this year but a lot of the beauty and skincare sector is still trying to recover from Covid. Last year saw an explosion in e-commerce and now high streets are coming back into the mix, so it will be interesting to see what the new equilibrium looks like.”